Efforts to perfect the art of forecasting the Indian monsoon have been on since meteorologist Blandford discovered the connection between snowfall over Eurasia and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall a hundred years ago, and Sir Gilbert Walker, another met, pointed out the association between the Indian monsoon rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. And why not? India’s prosperity is directly linked to the summer monsoon rainfall. However, the mets probably can’t compete with the Indian farmer when it comes to medium and short-range forecasting.

Nowhere are the rains as welcome as in the Thar desert. Too much depends on the monsoon for farmers and the local communities to rely in the reports of the Indian Meteorology Department. When the first showers will fall on the parched land and how much will fall, are questions that only centuries of local wisdom and observation can answer.

Location of the nests of the red-wattled lapwing (Vanellus indicus) can help you judge how much it will rain. If nests are found on the banks of a water body or in the bed of a tank, it will not rain. If the nest is away from the bank and at higher elevation, the rains will be good.

In a remote village in south-west Rajasthan, close to the Indo-Pak border lies the village Bhinyad in Barmer district. Farmers here, as in most of India, observe the behaviour of the local insect-, bird- and animal-life around them, which along with plants, give them an excellent indication of the rains to come. Here are some examples :

• When the house sparrow bathes in dry soil, it indicates that it will rain.
• If the crow starts laying eggs, it will not rain for the next 60-70 days at least.
• If the farmer busy in his field spots a spiny-tailed lizard (Uromastix hardwickii) starting to seal its burrow, he is certain that it will rain within the next 24 hours.
• If a flock of cattle egrets leave their roosts and fly away, it is going to be a poor year for rain.
• If fresh leaves on the khejri tree (P. cinceraria) dry up during July and August, rains will follow in the next 48 hours.
• "If the crow starts cawing at night and the jackal wails in the day, its time to forget about farming and seek jobs as labour in the mines," says Taga Ram, a 72-year old farmer of the village, "Its going to be a drought year."

"We have a good laugh when we farmers huddle around the transistor and listen to the weather forecast at night over All India Radio," says Gewra Ram, another farmer from the village. "We have just returned from the fields and have observed insect, bird and animal activity around us, and know that its going to rain, and rain heavily. And yet the news-lady says, "For the next 24 hours, no rainfall is expected over Rajasthan....!!"