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FUTURE SHOCK

The age of Eco-refugees?



One estimate says that as 
many as 150 
million people may be displaced by 
the impacts of global 
warming and consequent 
sea-level rise by 2050.
That’s 1.5% of of that year’s 
predicted global population of 
10 billion.

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According to a 1998 report by the IPCC, Regional Impacts of Climate Change:

  • a one-metre rise in sea level would inundate three million hectares in Bangladesh, displacing between 15 to 20 million people.

  • Vietnam could lose 500,000 hectares of land in the Red River Delta and another 2 million hectares in the Mekong Delta, displacing roughly 10 million people.

  • a one-metre rise would swamp about 85 per cent of the Maldives' main island, which contains the capital Male. It could turn most of the Maldives into sandbars, forcing 300,000 people to flee to India or Sri Lanka. "We would have no choice," said President Gayoom as long ago as 1989, "for the Maldives would cease to exist as a nation."

  • West Africa is at high risk. Up to 70 per cent of the Nigerian coast would be inundated by a one-metre rise, affecting more than 2.7 million hectares and pushing some beaches three kilometres inland. Gambia's capital, Banjul, would be entirely submerged.

  • South American cities would suffer some of the worst economic effects. A one-metre rise in sea level would displace 600,000 people in Guyana—80% of the population and cost US$ 4 billion, or 1,000 per cent of its tiny GNP.

Can India absorb millions of Bangaladeshis that stream across the border in case of sea-level rise?

Some predict that in the near future, environmental refugees may outnumber traditional refugees many times over.Global warming and sea-level rise could wipe out large coastal areas and many small islands altogether.

This raises the horrors of a "wholesale relocation of populations" which in turn will raise fundamental questions about citizenhood and nationality. Once land has been lost, will a residual nationality be able to continue, or will we have to create a new category of "world citizens"if many lands are lost permanently?

The concept of the world citizen would also acknowledge the fact that climate change is a collective problem and requires a collective solution. Again, in the event of full-scale national evacuation, what happens to an abandoned country's exclusive economic zone, its territorial waters and nationhood?

Few things could be more sensitive than carving out new territory to create space for a nation.

Also, in such a scenario, what about the "waves of environmental refugees that spill across borders with destabilizing effects" on domestic order and international relations?

Population movement can have significant negative impacts on the natural environment. Refugee crises in Burundi, Rwanda and Somalia have highlighted the devastating impact large-scale population displacement can have on the environment and resources in neighboring countries of refuge.

The Impact of Dying cities
Another issue is that of cities no longer proving sustainable. For example, Quetta In Pakistan was originally designed for just 50,000 people. Today, it has 1 million plus inhabitants. All of whom depend on 2,000 wells pumping water deep from underground, depleting what is believed to be a fossil or nonreplenishable aquifer. Experts say that Quetta may have enough water for say a decade. After that, in the words of a water assessment study, Quetta will be "a dead city."

With most of the nearly 3 billion people to be added to the world's population by 2050 living in countries where water tables are already falling and where population growth swells the ranks of those sinking into hydrological poverty, water refugees are likely to become commonplace.

They will be most common in arid regions where populations are outgrowing water supply. Even Indian villages have been abandoned because overpumping had depleted the local aquifers and villagers could no longer reach water. Millions in China and in parts of Mexico may have to move because of a lack of water.

Relocating Squatter Cities
When a city is dying, the first to be hit could be the squatter cities. In Bangkok, rising sea levels would cost an additional $ 20 million per year in pumping costs alone. Costs for relocating displaced squatter communities would be astronomical. In Shanghai, up to a third of the city's 17 million inhabitants would be flooded, displacing up to 6 million people. Singapore, one city with a comprehensive planning culture, has nothing in its latest 50-year master plan to deal with a one-metre sea-level rise.

The Spreading of deserts
Spreading deserts are also displacing people. In China, where the Gobi Desert is growing by 10,400 square kilometers a year, the refugee stream is swelling. An Asian Development Bank assessment in Gansu province identified 4,000 villages that face abandonment.

As the desert takes over, farmers and herdsmen are forced to move, squeezed into the shrinking area of habitable land or forced into cities.

The refugee flows from falling water tables and expanding deserts are just beginning.

All these factors taken together do not augur well and the environmental refugees of tomorrow could be both from villages and cities.

 

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