Out of 98 oil producing nations, 64 are on terminal decline. What will happen when all wells dry up?
Scene 1: A playground of a school, located right at the heart of a typical Indian city >>
Shamik: Hey, hey Godhuli, you know what? I found a brand new reality game on the Net last night... It’s called
Past shocks
1973: The first oil shock was caused by an Arab oil ban directed at Israel's supporters in the Arab- Israeli war: primarily US, Japan, the Netherlands, Portugal and South Africa. The price of oil hit to almost US$12 a barrel.
1979: The second oil shock followed the Islamic Revolution in Iran. Exports from Iran stopped, causing a loss of about 5 per cent of supply and price rise of 150 per cent.
Oil averaged about US$32 a barrel. And in 1980, the battle between two major oil producers, Iran and Iraq, cut 8 per cent of world demand. Oil price averaged about US$37 this year.
“World Without Oil”. It has a whole lot of fun stuff, video footage. But... but… it’s quite scary really.
Godhuli (looks up from a book she is reading): Scary, why?
Shamik (sits down beside her): It just feels too real for comfort, you know. It begins with a message ‘Play it – before you live it’. It’s more like an experience that will soon not be a game to play, but a reality in which we live. I lay awake thinking about it all night.
Godhuli (smiles): Is it the game only that is bothering you Shamik? Or did you watch the news on the television last night as well? And perhaps you read the banner headlines on frontpages of all the dailies…
Shamik (looking bewildered): What do you mean?
Godhuli (shaking her head impatiently): Oh come now, you can’t be that blind. Everyone is talking about it for months now. It’s the latest ‘oil shock’ that has turned the entire world upside down.
Shamik: Of course, I know about it. Everyone — from my father to Gyanji, our neighbour’s chauffer — is complaining about how the fuel prices have shot through the roof.
Godhuli: Well, it seems to have done more than just upset your neighbourhood. All world leaders, including our own netas, are quarrelling viciously amongst themselves on this.
Shamik: You are right Godhuli. I must have had nightmares last night because I have been hearing incessantly about the oil crisis for so many weeks now. Listen, I have a brilliant idea. Aren’t we looking for a topic to work on our class project? Why don’t we choose this?
Godhuli (jumping up): You are a genius! Come, let’s go find our Economics teacher, Money Shankar Sir. He will tell us more.
Scene 2: The school corridor >>
Money Shankar: You are right Godhuli. Managing the oil crisis has now become the central problem of global politics. It has triggered a major upheaval in the economies of the nations. Because the current rise in fuel prices is unprecedented. In 1999, the price of oil hovered around US$16 a barrel. By early 2008, it had crossed the US$100 a barrel mark. Now it has jumped by more than 40 per cent. And experts are predicting that this trend will continue at least till 2012!
Shamik: So is the world really facing such a huge energy crisis?
Money Shankar: Yes, my dear. Even the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Nobuo Tanaka recently
declared, “We are clearly in the third oil price shock”.
Godhuli: Third oil shock! This means the world has already faced similar situations?
Money Shankar: Yes, we have – during the 1970s. Fortunately, they were temporary. But this time, it might be the onset of a new, and permanent condition.
Godhuli: A ‘condition’? Doesn’t it mean that there will be no energy reserve in the world?
Money Shankar: Not exactly. The immediate issue is not so much that there will be no oil or energy resource, as it is not having enough to keep the economies running. See, the world economy does not need to deplete its entire reserve to collapse. Let me explain this with an example. Human body is 70 per cent water.
The body of a 50kg girl has 35kg (or litres) of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, she does not need to lose all 35kg of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. Even a loss of as little as 4-5kg of water is enough.
Shamik: So, we can still recover from this shock… but how?
Money Shankar: The challenge will be to come up with a strategy that combines bold new initiatives in the realms of science, economics and politics. But here comes Ms Testubewallah, our science teacher…Why don’t you ask her how this fuel crisis can be diffused?
Ms Testubewallah: By looking for alternative sources of energy of course, and switching as soon as we can.
Godhuli: Alternative sources of energy… you mean solar and wind energy?
Ms Testubewallah: Not only solar and wind powers. There are other options too. Here, let me tell you about some of them.
Green Energy
Wind Power
Wind power harnesses the energy of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Wind towers are usually built together on wind farms.
In India
India ranks fourth amongst the wind-energy-producing countries of the world, after Germany, Spain and USA. The country’s estimated potential is around 45000 MW at 50m above ground level. By 2012, the country aims to produce 5000 MW of it. Wind-farms have been installed in more than nine states. Also, wind-solar and wind-diesel hybrid systems have been installed at a few places.
Verdict: Wind power is a renewable energy source, which has no waste by-products, and causes no pollution. But it is quite ‘unpredictable’. When wind speed is low, less electricity is generated.
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Hydroelectric Energy
Hydropower or hydraulic power is the force or energy of moving water. And hydroelectricity is a form of hydropower, which is most widely used as form of renewable energy. Most of it comes from the potential energy of dammed water driving a water turbine and generator.
In India
India has immense amount of hydro-electric potential – estimated at 84,000MW at 60 per cent load factor (1,48,701 MW installed capacity). It ranks 5th in terms of exploitable hydro-potential on global scenario. India has considerable potential. But unfortunately, some major projects have sparked controversy.
Verdict: Hydroelectricity produces no primary waste or pollution. But, construction of dams can have grave environmental impact on the surrounding areas.
Tidal Power
Tidal power or tidal energy is a form of hydropower that converts the energy of tides into electricity. A water turbine is placed in a tidal current, which turns an electrical generator, or a gas compressor that stores the energy until needed. As tides are more predictable than wind energy and solar power, some consider it to have the potential for future electricity generation.
In India
India is surrounded by sea on three sides. So, its potential to harness tidal energy is huge. The identified economic tidal power potential in India is about 8000-9000 MW. The most potent sites to produce tidal energy include the Gulf of Cambay (7000 MW approx.) and the
Gulf of Kachchh (1200 MW approx.) on the west coast, and the Ganges Delta in the Sunderbans in West Bengal (less than 100 MW).
Verdict:Tides are a source of clean and renewable source of energy. But the energy generation may have serious environmental impacts like water salinity and sediment movement.
Wave Energy
Wave power systems convert the motion of the waves into usable mechanical energy, which in turn, can be used to generate electricity. These systems can be floating or fixed to the seabed offshore, or may be constructed at the edge on a suitable shoreline. Wave energy is being extensively researched in several industrial countries, particularly Japan, Norway, UK and USA. The largest concentration of potential wave energy is located between the 40 and 60 latitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres.
In India
In 1982, the research and development activity for exploring wave energy started at the Ocean Engineering Centre, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras. It is estimated that the annual wave energy potential along the Indian coast is about 60000 MW approximately (between 5 MW to 15 MW per meter).
Verdict: Though wave power has great potential, its generation is not currently a widely employed commercial technology because of the high costs.
Solar Power
It involves using sunrays to:
In India
India gets over 5,000 trillion kWh of solar energy per year. And the daily average over different parts of India is about 4-7 kWh per square metre, depending on the location. While, the largest solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in India has 200kwp capacity currently.
Verdict: Solar power is a renewable resource, which causes no pollution, and has no fuel costs and waste byproducts. But currently, it is very expensive to produce.
Biomass
Biomass is all plant material or vegetation, raw or processed, wild or cultivated. It is essentially stored solar energy that can be converted to electricity, fuel, and heat. Biomass energy comes from three sources –agricultural crop residues, municipal and industrial waste, and energy plantations. It consists of fast growing trees and grasses, agricultural residues like used vegetable oils, wheat straw or corn, wood waste like paper trash, yard clippings, sawdust or wood chips, and methane that is captured from landfills, livestock, and municipal waste water treatment.
In India
Indian rural economy is a biomass subsistence economy in which forest plays a major role in supporting rural livelihood. Urban Indians purchase 14-20 million tones of firewood every year, worth over Rs. 500 crore. Gobar (cow dung) is only used in the domestic sector, but crop residues are used in the industrial sector too.
Verdict: Biomass is abundant and renewable source of energy, available throught the world. It is a good example of recycling resources.
Geothermal Energy
Geothermal energy harnesses the heat energy present underneath the Earth.
In 1997, the world’s geothermal electricity generation capacity was 8000 MW and another 12000 MW for thermal applications. Italy, New Zealand, USA, Japan, Mexico, Philippines, and Indonesia are some of the countries that are using geothermal energy for electricity generation and thermal applications.
In India
Exploration and study of geothermal fields started in 1970. The Geological Survey of India (GSI) has identified 350 geothermal energy locations in the country. The most promising of these is in Puga valley of Ladakh. Although, there are seven geothermal provinces in India– the Himalayas, Sohana, West coast, Cambay, Son- Narmada-Tapi (SONATA), Godavari, and Mahanadi. The estimated potential for geothermal energy in India is about 10000 MW.
Verdict: Geothermal energy causes no pollution, and has low deployment costs. It has a lesser impact on the environment than tidal or hydroelectric plants. But, some geothermal stations have created geological instability, even causing earthquakes.
Nuclear Energy
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission to generate energy from the reaction of Uranium-235 (an isotope of uranium). The atoms of uranium rods are split in the process, releasing a large amount of energy. The process continues as a chain reaction with other nuclei. The released heat boils up water to create steam, which spins a turbine generator, producing electricity.
Researchers and scientists across the world are busy in their labs trying to create energy and fuels from almost anything, including, leaves, rice husk, pedal power, computers and even chicken-fat.
But there are several apprehensions about using nuclear energy, such as:
• Current light water reactors burn the nuclear fuel poorly, leading to energy waste.
• The long-term radioactive waste storage problems of nuclear power have not been fully solved.
• The economics of nuclear power is not simple to evaluate because of high capital costs for building and very low fuel costs.
Moreover, the possibility of nuclear disasters, such as the Three Mile Island accident and the Chernobyl disaster, has built public fear. This acts as a major deterrent to the use of the power.
In India
Nuclear power supplies about 3 per cent of India's electricity. By 2050, it is expected to rise to 25 per cent. Currently, there are 14 reactors in commercial operation and nine under construction. The total nuclear installed capacity is 1840 Mega Watt electric (MWe) as compared to 3,46,000 MWe of the world. But, India has limited coal and uranium reserves. So, its huge thorium reserves – about 25 per cent of the world's total – are expected to fuel its nuclear power programme in the long run.
Verdict: Nuclear power does not produce any primary air pollution. But it releases highly radioactive wastes, and has high environmental and economic costs.
Shamik: Wow! So we have so many options. But then, why aren’t we shifting to them right away?
Money Shankar: There are various reasons. Let’s look at the two main consumers of energy in India, and probably the entire world – transport and industrial sectors.
Guilty Parts
Transport Sector
Transport sector is one of the largest users of our energy resources. In 2005, almost 50 per cent of the world’s oil consumption went into running vehicles. And it is growing at a disastrous pace. Transport sector runs mainly on two fuels – petrol and diesel.
Petrol Poser
In India, roughly 7 per cent of our consumption of oil products is for petrol – mainly used in private vehicles. More cars mean more petrol use. And as there are no set guidelines to regulate fuel efficiency of cars, which will give us more mileage per drop of petrol, we will continue to inefficiently use the fuel and grumble about prices. The increasing cost of oil means that there will be even less money and resources to invest into public systems.
Dreaded Diesel
Diesel, on the other hand, is the so-called fuel of the poor. And the price hike will hit the same poor real hard. Because with the upsurge of fuel prices, the costs of other goods will also rise. This will be mainly due to the higher road-based transportation costs. There is a way out of this too. Railway system. It can transport much more, while using much less energy. But, people still depend on trucks and trailers, which run on diesel. The railway system remains neglected and dismembered. What the country needs today is a clear focus on developing a strong public transport – buses and railways. We must be mobile without cars, for the sake of energy and environment.
Industrial Sector
India’s industrial sector is another major energy guzzler. It consumes about 50 per cent (including feedstock) of the total commercial energy produced in the country! Here are some other figures:
Yes, there is a huge scope for improving energy efficiency in industries. But, the industrial sector has failed to take full advantage of the financial incentives provided by the government to encourage energy conservation strategies.
Godhuli: Oh! We are wasting so much of energy! May be the developed countries are right… We are the main “culprits” behind the oil price rise…
Money Shankar: India’s situation is very complex, my dear.
Crude war
India needs more and more energy to fuel its booming economy. Thus, accelerating the overall energy demand in the world. But, the problem is not merely this growing demand for energy. Major part of it is the inequality in the world economy.
War of two worlds
There are two worlds – industrialised/developed countries and developing countries. Or say, the North and the South.
Now, developing countries like India and China are experiencing rapid economic growth. Their per capita income is growing, and so are their demands for food and fuel.
But, the industrialised world is accusing the developing countries for creating global energy crisis. How?
The North alleges, supported by many politically motivated data and reports, that the South is consuming more non-renewable resources and thus, emitting more greenhouse gases, which is leading to global warming.
But what everyone is forgetting is that the North, with only 20 per cent of the earth’s population, accounts for 85 per cent of the global consumption of non-renewable energy. On a per capita basis, the North releases much more greenhouse gases than an Indian or Chinese. The North has already used much of the planet’s ecological capital. It has already gobbled-up much of the global energy resources. And has already set off the climate change process.
But, the same inequality exists at home…
Developing Dilemma
Similar to the situation explained in the story ‘Feeding Frenzy’ (Issue dated 1-15 July 2008), the rise in per capita income of India has favoured half of the country’s population – the urban poor and middle-class. The other section has experienced no such rapid growth in income. The ‘richer’ group spends a lot of their new income on energy-intensive goods like cars. This stresses the supply and ultimately, shoots up the prices of fuels (in this case). But, the rural poor face this higher fuel prices with no greater income. So, the rich continue to enjoy and waste the resources, while the poor cannot afford to use any.
Scene 3: The school lobby >>
Money Shankar: So do you realise now what is the root of all problems? It is not the impending doom of energy resources, but it is this global inequality. The focus is not on the industrialised countries that are rampaging the resources and ecology. Instead, it is on poor developing countries and their miniscule resource use. Similarly within developing countries, there is a huge rich-poor divide.
Shamik: So the concept of ‘one world’ – interdependent and equal – seems like a distant dream. How can there be any kind of global management in a world that is so highly divided between the rich and poor?
Do any of you have an answer? Or an opinion or experience that you would like to share with Godhuli and Shamik? Then please write to: panditji@cseindia.org, or Pandit ji, Centre for Science and Environment 41, Tughlakabad Insititutional Area New Delhi-110062
